← Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive HVN Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 15.4% | 11 | 2-7-2 | 27.3% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -8.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -9.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.1% | -3.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.1% | +3.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | +8.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Diana | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wildheart Lyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Giant Tortoise | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mist Resonance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lively Chorale | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Whiplash Allure | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magebane Lash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |